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Scenario Planning
Develop narrative scenarios around two key uncertainty dimensions using a 2×2 matrix
1
Define Uncertainty Dimensions
↔ Horizontal Axis (X)
→
↕ Vertical Axis (Y)
→
2
Explore Scenarios
Vertical Axis
High
Low
Horizontal Axis
Low
High
Quadrant I — X Low, Y High
Scenario 1
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Quadrant II — X High, Y High
Scenario 2
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Quadrant III — X Low, Y Low
Scenario 3
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Quadrant IV — X High, Y Low
Scenario 4
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Scenario Name
Narrative Description
Key Indicators & Signals
Implications for the Venture
Strategic Responses